Obvious, Big Bend National Park, Texas, March 2009
Obvious | Big Bend National Park, Texas | March 2009

Is it possible to experience the joy of serendipity and mystery without the costs of their inefficiencies? Can the sweet be as sweet without the sour?

A loss: Diana Kimball, Paper Houses: Vanity, Doubt, and the Perils of Self-Publishing:

Most book-buyers do not walk into bookstores, or embark upon browsing through Amazon.com, thinking about metrics of approbation and the business models of various publishing houses. They are looking for something to read.

Without paper copies of a book inundating physical stores and crowding their shelves, countless opportunities for real-world serendipity are lost. It is almost impossible to accidentally collide with a print-on-demand book, because the book would first have to be demanded. For all its astounding resource inefficiency, the publishing industry’s system of mass production is quite expert at populating shelves in enticing ways. Without admission to that physical matrix, self-published books lose out on the production of consumer desire—a production process that is mimicked, not subverted, on sites such as Amazon.com.

An opportunity: Grant McCracken, Finder’s fee and the future of publishing:

I was in my local Barnes and Noble on Sunday and I bought two books. Both of them from Amazon, online, using my iPhone while standing in the isles.

Of course I felt bad. I learned about these two books thanks to Barnes and Noble. They ought to have made the sale.

The problem was, I wanted both books in Kindle form and Barnes and Noble couldn’t help me there.

Still, it’s clear they ought to be getting a finder’s fee. As should booker reviewers, websites, magazines and other players in the stream. And it doesn’t have to be much to add up.

If Barnes and Noble were getting .25 for every book they brought to America’s attention, it would be a pretty penny.

Here’s the thing: Amazon is now engaged in a dangerous game of “winner take all.” It must see that it’s time to give BN a finder’s fee when I make my purchase. Because this bookstore created value. It instructed me in my possibilities. And it deserves to harvest this value.

Yes, Amazon tries to do this. I continue to be impressed by how badly it does it. There is no substitute for browsing, and nothing browses better than a bookstore.

Not quite: a bookstore is hardly the best way to browse for content; swimming through the rich but muddled waters of experience goods and the “eddies of disparate and unconnected thoughts” without a guide can be a monumental waste of time, a wealth of knowledge clouded by fog, locked behind dams, unnavigable without the maps and pointers of readily available trusted authorities.

But browsing online comes with its own challenges; mystified by incomplete information and clouded by too much information we regularly appeal to the heuristics, stereotypes and rules of thumb that we have created to help us make decisions offline and online.

Thus the answer isn’t to replace the bookstore but to enhance it, to combine the online and the offline experiences in “real-time” to tie together the senses and sensibilities of both worlds.

But the real question: does stripping away the inefficiency and costs of browsing and searching strip away the benefits?

Is it possible to experience serendipity and mystery without inefficiency?

(In short, yes and no; as usual, it all comes down to the balance in design and execution for disparate audiences, intents and business models. Consider that thought as we discuss platforms for organizing and distributing creative content.)

Hello, I'm Taylor Davidson.
I'm an early-stage VC and a photographer. If you liked this post, please subscribe to this blog. For more like this, check out the archives, and follow me on Twitter @tdavidson.
  • http://ac-idealog.blogspot.com Aaronchua

    Mobile can enhance offline serendipity : )

    http://ac-idealog.blogspot.com/2009/05/connecti…

  • http://www.frogblog.biz Fred H Schlegel

    The finder fee is an interesting idea. I've been dreading the decline of my local B&N.

  • http://willdearman.me/index.php/2009/06/daily-digest-for-june-2nd-2009/ Will Dearman Lifestream » Daily Digest for June 2nd, 2009

    [...] Can we experience the joy of serendipity without the costs of inefficiency? — 10:20pm via Google [...]

  • http://www.taylordavidson.com/writing/ Taylor Davidson

    Oh, I remember our earlier conversations, even pre-dating that post :)

    The question is what the right degree of balance between the costs and benefits of serendipity, and how do we capture that balance in our product design and business models. The joy of discovery is typically preceded by and heightened by the pain of “non-discovery”; obviously the balance will be different by product, users and scenarios, so how do we find that balance? How do we test that in the marketplace? How do we test it with market research? (please don't say focus groups) How do we bake that balance in to our business plans and revenue models?

  • http://www.taylordavidson.com/writing/ Taylor Davidson

    The sad thing is that B&N could make it easier by integrating mobile tools and easy access to their website in their physical stores to appeal to different types of customers; maybe independent bookstores will be better equipped to roll out finder fees or other models?

  • http://www.frogblog.biz Fred H Schlegel

    There could be some real power there – especially with the independent book stores. They tend to have a more loyal audience to begin with – if you could cheat on your favorite store and yet support them at the same time… Especially on things not in stock. Of course that would add price pressure, but that's there anyway. Some version of the associates program at amazon might work nicely.

  • http://www.taylordavidson.com/writing/ Taylor Davidson

    Agreed; but to admit to my lack of knowledge in the area: shouldn't have independent book stores tried this? Shouldn't they already be “Amazon Affiliates” at least? This can't be a new idea, right? The Internet has been blowing up their business for a long time now…

  • http://bp411.com distanlo

    this brings up an interesting point for me.

    having worked at a large retailer with 600+ stores and on-line, the logic was that the long tail items would be online (the endless aisle) while the must have basics would be in store. thus creating very little “serendipity” in store. and also creating too easy of an environment to replicate and find what you see in store at any number of places on the web.

    now, if you look at physical stores through this “serendipity” lens, could you argue that the long tail, unique, different items need to be in the physical stores to create some value (serendipity) there? so that you will actually go back to the store to find something different that you haven't seen on the bestseller lists online?

  • http://www.taylordavidson.com/writing/ Taylor Davidson

    I'm not a specialist on retail store design; it would be interesting to review Paco Underhill's Why We Buy and a href=”http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0743235924?ie=UTF8&tag=taylodavid-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=0743235924″>Call of the Mall in today's retail (online and offline) world. Figuring out the right way to combine supplementary and complementary products with physical and virtual displays would be an interesting challenge. The fact is that it's not new; many mobile app developers have worked on ways for people to buy things online leveraging physical stores for a long time (I've seen them since 2000).

    But the real point, and this what you bring up perfectly, is that the lens we use is typically cold, hard efficiency, when in fact it's the joy of serendipity that makes the physical retail world fun, meaningful and human. This isn't an issue of comparing online to offline: it's about combining both by using the devices, interaction and methods for searching and browsing of both worlds to help each other.

  • http://bp411.com distanlo

    i read 'why we buy' and the quote i loved was something along the lines of:

    “if impulse buying stopped in retail, our economy would grind to a halt”

    this was of course based on his research of observing shoppers. i think that point is missed by many, many retailers.

  • http://www.taylordavidson.com/writing/2009/09/02/stalking-people-to-structure-conversations/ Stalking people to structure conversations. | Taylor Davidson

    [...] Returning to conversations about conversations, and thinking about the business models contained within the technological, cultural and business conflicts between serendipity and inefficiency. [...]

  • Rayna

    Very thoughtful post here. I would say to your questions: Yes, and Yes. Information overload and inefficient or incomplete delivery of info i believe is a by-product of the information age. I think it is more about how the experience is delivered. Your point:
    'Thus the answer isn’t to replace the bookstore but to enhance it, to combine the online and the offline experiences in “real-time” to tie together the senses and sensibilities of both worlds.' –is spot on. I regularly drop into my neighborhood bookshop. They don't carry every book, but they are extremely knowledgable about books, period. They are great at helping me find the right book (and get better as they get to know me), special order what i need, and are interested in how i enjoyed my purchases. I like supporting their business because of that experience.

    Alas, i think with the serendipidity will always be a bit of inefficiency (yin and yang). But as an eternal explorer, the possibility of serendipidity makes it worth it.

  • http://www.taylordavidson.com/writing/ Taylor Davidson

    Interesting, yesterday at TEDxTuttle I saw a TED video about the MIT Media Lab's wearable computers that allowed people to merely look at books, and the computer accessed reviews and information from Amazon and projected the display onto the book itself. Real-time information loops.

    I don't think information overload is new, but a human condition; to quote myself:

    “Societies adapt better, quicker, cheaper than individuals.

    Yep, information overload isn't a new feeling, but a near guarantee; supply and demand for information creation and consumption in sum across everyone will create new tools to find new equilibriums as the market shifts, even though any one specific person will find it difficult to adapt.”

    Perhaps as eternal explorers “develop [the] tolerance for inefficiency to reap [the] rewards of serendipity” by getting more effective and efficient at “shaping serendipity”? (quotes from Hagel)

    And yes, experiences matter.

  • http://www.taylordavidson.com/writing/2009/09/22/tuttle-club/ The Tuttle Club | Taylor Davidson

    [...] doing and for learning from each other through doing. Is Tuttle creating the right balance between serendipity and efficiency? Who knows: but since people continue to come, and the numbers continue to grow, something must be [...]

  • jimgoldstein

    I can see an augmented reality book store experience becoming the norm. Barnes & Noble releasing their own app to peruse the bookstore and have the books digitally delivered to you through their own reader or through Amazon. The technology is there to make it happen. It's just a matter of time.

  • http://www.taylordavidson.com/writing/2009/10/05/shape-serendipity/ How can we “shape serendipity”? | Taylor Davidson

    [...] benefit of serendipity carries the cost of inefficiency; thus, in the interest of creating better metrics to understand the equations underlying [...]

  • http://www.taylordavidson.com/writing/ Taylor Davidson

    Augmented reality sounds so much better than location-based services, doesn't it?

  • jimgoldstein

    Well it certainly give it a more appealing aura to it. Augmented Reality becomes an experience versus a protocol which location-based services comes across as.

  • http://www.taylordavidson.com/writing/ Taylor Davidson

    Perhaps, but that's just an interpretation of the term, not a
    definition of what they are. As we start to convert buzzwords into
    reality we inevitably have to dig into tools and use-cases: sadly we
    often lose sight of the big picture along the way.

  • jimgoldstein

    Ah but for a person like myself who is focused on user perception… perception is reality. I suppose it depends on which side of the aisle you sit. Marketing people and their softer friendlier terms… can't kill'm can't live with out'm

  • http://www.taylordavidson.com/writing/ Taylor Davidson

    Valid point.

    And did I just get called a marketing person? Ouch :)

  • jimgoldstein

    LOL no I was referring to myself as the marketing person. Fear not was poking fun at myself not you.

  • Anonymous

    LOL no I was referring to myself as the marketing person. Fear not was poking fun at myself not you.

  • http://www.taylordavidson.com/writing/2009/11/30/investment-thesis/ An Investment Thesis | Taylor Davidson

    [...] To start: surfacing and pricing externalities, reducing the cost of relevance, cheaper serendipity, faster, better and cheaper links between online and [...]

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